What If the Suns Took Luka Over Ayton?

What if Booker and Luka never had beef? What if they were cooking together?

The 2018 NBA Draft will forever go down as one of the biggest NBA draft what-ifs. Despite being the youngest MVP in EuroLeague history and leading Real Madrid to the championship Doncic was not the first overall pick. Instead the Suns selected the Bahamian sensation and boy next door Deandre Ayton. Ayton is no slouch, he's shown flashes and continues to improve as a defender, but he ain't Luka Magic!

So jump in the Delorean and journey with us into the 'what if' universe to imagine if the Phoenix Suns had drafted Luka Doncic instead. How would the fortunes of the Suns changed? Would they have changed?

Now in order to paint this picture for you I'm going to take a little creative licence in the form of a 'better or worse' evaluation. We're going to talk about the basics of what influences winning basketball: team chemistry, defense, offense and coaching. So with that said lets break it down.

The starting point: 2017/18, the good, the bad and the ugly

Let's pause for a minute to peel off a layer of this onion.

The Suns were not good in the 2018. They were a dysfunctional mess. The previous season was doomed from the beginning. Bad drafts and mediocre free agent signings meant the Suns starting lineup was a bag of misfit toys.

But ahead of the draft the Suns made a shrewd move to hire Igor Kokoskov. The hire overall goes down well in the media. He's a good coach with a good pedigree and has just coached the underdog Slovenian national team to win the EuroBasket 2017 trophy.

Slovenia? Why does that feel significant? Wasn't that the team led by ex-Sun Goran Dragic and some wonderkid named … wait for it: Luka Doncic. Yes you read that right, the Suns hired a coach with real intel and insight into the future Hall of Famer. The story gets even more weird when you realise that Kokoskov as a coach was lauded as a point guard savant dating back to his time as an assistant coach helping to develop Sun's legend Steve Nash into a 2 time MVP.

The stars, the moon, the freaking sun (pun intended) were aligning. Why Phoenix, why! How could you fumble this so badly?

To figure that out you have to look at the GM: Ryan Donahue. By 2018 he's coming off drafting two European players in the top 5. Exhibit A: Dragan Bender. Exhibit B: Alex Len. Two highly touted Euro players who produced nothing, literally nothing. Bender for instance averaged 37% shooting from the field… as a Center. Suffice to say he wasn't feeling super great about his European talent scout or their evaluation skills. So when another highly touted European talent with a limited athletic profile comes along he might just be holding onto some past bias. Lets also not forget Ayton wasn't a bad prospect. He looked the part, gliding around like a young David Robinson. Everyone felt he was a safe pick. He was right on their doorstep at the University of Arizona too.

Entering the alternative universe

Lets enter the alternative universe and herald in a new and better reality for Suns fans.

Blam, we've arrived in 2018. The NBA draft is around the corner. Phoenix for the first time in their unlucky franchise history have the number 1 pick. Fun fact, until that point Phoenix had never had the first overall pick. Wild! This franchise is cursed, I'm convinced.

What if, new coach Igor Kokoskov comes in and takes Donahue aside and says "Ryan, my guy, this kid Luka is special. Trust me. Don't buy into the athleticism stuff, he's going to bait so many people into fouls. And his passes…. everyone is going to be open. Even Bender might hit a three."

Fast forward to the draft. "With the number one overall pick the Phoenix Suns select Luka Doncic, 6'7 guard from Real Madrid."

It's done. History has changed. Fast forward 9 picks and Ryan Donahue, feeling himself, swings the same deal for Mikal Bridges. In this alternate reality he's actually competent and knows he's going to need wing defence.

So there you have it, history is fixed. With the new young core in place, the Suns are ready to thrive. Lets unpack how this could have unfolded.

The 2018/19 Suns starting lineup

Coaching: Better

A coach is really only as good as their players. Yes there are exceptions (Prime Gregg Popovich and Spoelstra) and yes some are better at developing players (seemingly any Steve Kerr team) or coaching certain types of players (Mike Brown here's looking at you buddy). The harsh truth is if you don't have the players needed to execute your system or style: it's hard to succeed. For Igor Kokoskov that meant point guards. Kokoskov's offense was predicated on fluidity, getting defences to move and "high pick-and-rolls, offering the ball-handler the opportunity to get the best shots possible both after the screen". Does that sound like something Luka would have been good at? Instead Kososkov had to experiment and throw the reins to an unproven playmaker in Devin Booker. The result? The Suns were 28th in the league in turnovers and bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. Igor got fired at season's end and everyone admitted he struggled with a "roster devoid of point guards".

In this alternate reality Booker doesn't have to learn on the job. Luka and Kokoskov have chemistry straight off the bat. The offense flows through Doncic, a more capable ball handler and passer than Booker. Doncic's presence would have opened up the floor for Booker. With his ability to shoot from beyond the arc and attack the rim, Booker would have been able to take advantage of the extra space created by Doncic. This would have made Booker and the rest of the team a potent offense. That sounds like a recipe for success to me.

Luka is likely going on to win ROY under his point guard friendly coach Igor. GM's and Owners tend to keep those guys around, so with more job security any coach worth their salt begins to expand and develop their schemes. Look even at the development of the Suns under Monty Williams from year 1 to year 2. With more time to install his system and find the right assistant coaches Igor could have grown and developed into the role.

And if he doesn't? It's much easier to find a good coach when you have two Superstars to work with. So I'm sticking with my assessment.

Team Chemistry: Better

Chemistry is everything in team sports. The difference between a good team and bad team isn't always talent but the cohesion the group of players. As Gregg Popovich said, "It takes a group to get this thing done."

Breaking chemistry down into its components you only have to look at the successful teams of the past few years. Golden State did it with consistency returning the same core year after year led by a dynamic duo of Steph and Klay. The Bucks did it by building progressively around their MVP and returning a consistent core of players. The Lakers, dynamic duo and complementary role players. These teams also had something else in common, a core willing to play for each other devoid of me first who inhibit a coach from building a 'team' first mentality.

In Doncic and Booker the Suns could have ticked the first box by having two All-Stars under contract for 4+ years. Imagine them being surrounded by equally promising ascending players like Mikal Bridges and other draft picks. Add that to a capable shooter in TJ Warren and future free agents and the team's prospects would have been completely different. That's a young core group of pretty low maintenance competitive players gelling season after season. Plus, Phoenix is a smaller market team, meaning less national spotlight on bad performances or constantly on the hunt for story lines.

But would Booker play nice with Luka? Evidence suggests yes. Booker had just resigned with the franchise to a 5 year max deal. Despite the dysfunction he was committed to as he said "turn around the franchise". Add to that Booker (even then) operated as a low maintenance star with that old school 'earn it' mentality. We have evidence of how easily Booker adapted to players like Chris Paul, Ricky Rubio and even Eric Bledsoe before them. Statistically speaking Booker was a more efficient scorer when his usage rate was lower. 2019/20 his usage dropped to 29% yet he had his most efficient shooting season and still averaged 6.5 assists per game. Enough said, that backcourt could have worked.

More importantly while Doncic and Booker are both dynamic scorers they are also incredibly competitive. Having two potential superstar players under contract for 4+ years would help create a bond that would have enabled this team to weather change. As long as you have your two north stars the team has direction.

Team Defense: Worse

Defensive ratings are sort of complicated. Hypothetical defensive ratings, even harder. Let's keep it simple. Blocks, steals and rebounds matter when it comes to defending, right?

In 2018/19 for the Suns Deandre Ayton played 70 games and averaged roughly 10 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 block a game. The Suns team defensive rating was 115, good for second worst in the league. Luka averaged 7.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.3 blocks. Simple addition and subtraction says the early returns would have been worse.

Projecting that out into the future and I hate to say it probably doesn't improve. Why? There is a reason why the past few years the Defensive Player of the Year has been a rim protector. Even in the era of excessive three point shooting it helps when you have great a defender on the back-end. Even the best perimeter defenders get beat. Deandre Ayton provides some kind of rim deterrent for the Suns. While not DPOY level he was still serviceable. Luka isn't that, despite the great rebounding stats he's a passive defender at best. In conclusion, defense is not great.

Team Offense: Waaay better

Offensive ratings are also really tricky. So let's not over do it. Good offense means a high field goal percentage, free throws made, assists, and offensive rebounds.

In the 'real' 2018/19 season Booker spent the year as Point Book getting an MBA from the James Harden undergraduate school of Shooting Point Guards. He had the third highest usage rate in the league at 32.8% had 4 turnovers per game and the Suns finished with the third worst offensive rating. Luka would have changed all that for Booker and the rest of the Suns team. A quick scan of the Maverick team's season averages before and after Luka demonstrates a significant bump in shooting percentage, especially from beyond the arc. Like I said, let's not over complicate this. Luke + Booker = good offense.

2019 and beyond, Championships?

Teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Golden State and even the Clippers demonstrate that once you have your stars and your core established you're always in the hunt for a Championship. Stability brings with it consistency and enables teams to be more methodical. Look at how these teams approach their off seasons. No it isn't a guarantee of success but you see it time and time again. Stable organizations find a way to draft well and find good free agents. If you have the core in place, it simplifies the process for GMs and for coaches.

With the future superstars in place and no longer chasing top 4 picks the Suns could have taken a more measured approach and picked players suited to playing with their stars rather than trying to hit home runs. Imagine a scenario in 2019 draft if the Suns trade back and draft Rui Hachimura or P.J. Washington 20 overall and with a second round pick select Nic Claxton. You're starting to get the picture.

Imagine a starting line up in 2022/23 of Luka, Booker, Bridges, Warren, Claxton. With players like Hachimura, Tyrese Maxey and Herb Jones coming off the bench. You have to imagine it becomes a recipe for success.

A defensive spine of Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton could have surrounded their two stars with steals, perimeter defense, rim protection and rebounding. Whether via free agency or the draft you could keep experimenting with players till you found the right core. As is the case the Suns could have benefited from hiring a defensive specialist if Kokoskov wasn't up to the task. With two bonafide stars in the building and hope for the future it wouldn't have been hard to find a coach willing to bide their time before the next head coaching position opened up.

Getting into the stats for a moment. Look at Luka's second year in the league his averages exploded from 20 PPG, 7.8RPG and 6APG to 28.8PPG, 9.4RPG and 8.8APG. The same could have occurred with the Suns. Sure his usage rate increased from 30% to 36%, but there is precedent. In 21/22 he shared the ball a lot more with Jalen Brunson and still maintained these averages. So, let's imagine Luka averaging 26 PPG, 8 RPG and 10 APG (giving him a bump, Booker can finish people). Booker on the flipside probably sees his averages hover north of 27 PPG, 4 RPG and 5 APG, which closely mirror his averages with Ricky Rubio on the team in 2019/20. That's a backcourt averaging 54, 12, 15. That is an almost historic partnership? In 2015/16 Klay and Steph averaged roughly 52, 8, 8. In 2014/15 they averaged roughly 46, 7, 10. Arguably the best backcourt of all time, '91 Jordan and Pippen, averaged 51, 14 and 13.

It's impossible to say what would have happened if the Suns had drafted Doncic instead of Ayton in 2018. However, it's clear that Doncic's presence on the Suns would have had a significant impact on the team. His ability to create offense, make his teammates better, and open up the floor for Booker would have made the Suns a more dynamic and dangerous team. While Ayton was solid for the Suns, it's hard not to wonder what could have been if they had made a better choice on draft night by taking Luka Doncic.